Monsoon progress over rest of NW India to slow down

It progressed very quickly over most parts of the country in the span of only ten days mainly due to active monsoon circulations and formation of a low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal

After advancing into most parts of the country, including many parts of northwest India, monsoon is likely to slow down, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

Representational Image. (File photo)

Monsoon has so far advanced into the entire peninsular India; east central; east and northeast India and some parts of northwest India. It progressed very quickly over most parts of the country in the span of only ten days mainly due to active monsoon circulations and formation of a low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal.

“However, due to approaching mid-latitude westerlies winds further progress of monsoon over remaining parts of northwest India is likely to be slow. The progress of monsoon is being monitored continuously and further updates will be provided on a daily basis,” IMD said on Monday.

The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) is passing through Diu, Surat, Nandurbar , Bhopal, Nowgong, Hamirpur, Barabanki, Bareilly, Saharanpur, Ambala and Amritsar. Monsoon has not arrived over Delhi yet.

“A westerly system is approaching which will slowdown the progress of monsoon. It will both weaken the easterly winds, crucial for monsoon rains and curb the coverage of easterlies in northwest India, especially in north Haryana and north Punjab region. After two more days, the easterlies may be able to reach up to certain parts of Uttar Pradesh. We are constantly monitoring the conditions, if the parameters are met, monsoon may make onset over Delhi in the next 2-3 days,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist at national weather forecasting centre, IMD.

Many parts of northwest India recorded “large excess” (60% or more above normal) rains between June 1 and June 13. Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi recorded 134%, 219% and 44% above normal rain; Punjab 180% and Uttar Pradesh 64%; Uttarakhand recorded 29% excess rain.

“Early in the month we recorded good rains over northwest India due to a western disturbance and later, due to the development of a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. Safdarjung station, for example, in Delhi recorded 88% excess rain. But now, monsoon has not covered the entire west Uttar Pradesh. Entire west and east UP have to be covered before monsoon moves to Delhi-NCR. There is a trough (low pressure area) in the westerlies which may bring thundershowers but that won’t be monsoon rain. There is a slowing down of the monsoon flow presently,” explained Kuldeep Shrivastava, head, regional weather forecasting centre.

The low pressure area which formed over Bay of Bengal is now over south Jharkhand and neighbourhood. It is likely to move west-northwestwards. A trough (area of low pressure) is running from west Rajasthan to northeast Bay of Bengal in lower tropospheric levels and another trough runs from eastcentral Arabian Sea to south Konkan in mid tropospheric levels. An off shore trough at mean sea level is running from south Maharashtra coast to north Kerala coast. Under the influence of these systems, widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorm and lightning are likely over most parts of east, central and northeast India during the next 4-5 days. Isolated extremely heavy (over 20 cm) is likely over Bihar on June 15. Heavy to very heavy rain, thunderstorm and lightning is very likely over Konkan, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala and Mahe.

Scattered rain is likely over most parts of NW India during the next three days and then, there is likely to be a decrease in rainfall in all parts of NW India except east Uttar Pradesh. Moderate to severe thunderstorms accompanied by frequent cloud to ground lightning and strong gusty winds are likely over Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar on June 14 and 15; over Punjab and Haryana on June 15. This may cause injuries leading to casualties to people and animals staying outdoors, IMD warned.

Monsoon is normally expected to cover all parts of the country, except a small part of Rajasthan, by July 5. It advanced to most parts of Madhya Pradesh, the entire Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar, most parts of east Uttar Pradesh and some parts of west Uttar Pradesh, entire Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and some parts of north Haryana, Chandigarh and north Punjab on Sunday.

India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during the four-month season that is crucial for the country’s farm-dependent economy and for rice, soybeans, and cotton cultivation. A normal monsoon this year will significantly help the agriculture sector. Good rains have been a prime reason for the farm sector’s resilience for two years despite the pandemic. India has over 150 million farmers and nearly half of Indians are dependent on a farm-based income. As much as 60% of India’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation.