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Paper leaks, caste factors: What led to BJP loss in Bankipur and Datia?
Bankipur was earlier held by BJP chief Nitin Nabin who vacated it following his election to the Rajya Sabha earlier this year.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) setbacks in the Bankipur and Datia bypolls was the outcome of several factors, including disenchantment among upper castes, anger over paper leaks, donation theft at the Ram Temple, and intra-party issues at the local level, said several party leaders on Monday.
Bankipur was earlier held by party chief Nitin Nabin who vacated it following his election to the Rajya Sabha earlier this year. Both Bankipur and Datia were counted as party strongholds.
Jan Suraaj Party’s Prashant Kishor wrested Bankipur from the BJP, and Congress’s Kuwar Ghanshyam Singh retained the seat for the party.
‘This loss an eye opener’
Before 2023, Datia had elected the BJP three times in a row. “The loss is an eye opener for the party…it shows how support from groups that are counted as BJP vote banks has eroded.
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The fact that the party did not even win in blocs where strong leaders such as Ravi Shankar Prasad, Nitin Nabin and Ramkripal Yadav come from is telling…” said a senior party leader. In Bankipur, the BJP pulled out all the stops to win the seat that has over 42% upper caste voters; allies Lok Janshakti Party and Janata Dal United also spared no effort.
Fractures in caste groups
But Monday’s result showed that no caste bloc consolidated behind BJP candidate Neeraj Kumar.
“There is a fracture in every caste group. The Kurmis are upset over Nitish Kumar being replaced as CM by Samrat Choudhary, the upper-castes backed Prashant Kishor, the Muslims do not vote for us, and only the Dalit vote seems intact. What is more worrying is that women voters seem to have drifted away too,” said a second party leader.
Did NEET protests impact BJP in Bankipur?
The second leader quoted above said the impact of the recent student protests could not be dismissed. “There are many coaching centres in Bankipur, and overall the number of students appearing for competitive examinations who are from Bihar is high. The issue has a strong resonance on the ground,” the second leader said.
The first leader attributed the disenchantment of upper caste to issues such as the now-withdrawn UGC guidelines to set up dedicated equality committees and equity squads to address complaints about caste-based discrimination, and the appointment of Samrat Choudhary as the CM.
“Other than the Kurmis who have been an important factor in Nitish Kumar’s win, the UC, largely seen as educated and informed were not happy with the choice of Choudhary as CM… then came the UGC equity regulations (later stayed by the Supreme Court) which added fuel to the fire and added to their resentment,” said the first functionary.
He said statements by some senior leaders intended to reflect the BJP’s hold over the constituency were “perceived as arrogant” and alienated the urban electorate. “There were many lapses that began from picking the wrong candidates. The first candidate Abhishek Kumar Sinha’s name was withdrawn after the Opposition was all set to make his family’s role in the in favour fodder scam an election issue…“ said a National Democratic Alliance lawmaker.
A similar controversy erupted in Datia where senior BJP leader Narottam Mishra was overlooked for the ticket. Although he lost the 2023 polls, Mishra had won the seat thrice starting 2008.
“The loss in Datia however is not because of the candidate. Even if Mishra had been fielded the party would have still lost because the UC is alienated…” said a MP-based lawmaker.
The leader explained that the Kushwaha vote bank rallied behind the Congress candidate after the wife of murdered BJP leader Kallu Kushwaha publicly accused CM Mohan Yadav of “shielding the accused who was also a Yadav”. “There is a difference between support for the self and support for the party… because he [Mishra] had not strengthened the party, the BJP candidate did not win. The leadership had taken note of this,” the leader from MP said.
In a post on X Nitin Nabin said, the BJP accepts the mandate and will introspect the reasons for the defeat.
“We express our heartfelt gratitude to the people of Manjalpur... for expressing their faith in the BJP…In Bankipur and Datia, we did not receive the expected mandate. We will conduct a thorough introspection of the election results in both these areas with complete seriousness, and with renewed energy and determination, we will continue to go among the people and work tirelessly to further strengthen their trust.”
