Biggest El Nino in ‘over a century’ to dial up global heat, India braces for double crop hit

A record-strength El Niño could intensify global warming and disrupt weather patterns, with India facing additional pressure on the monsoon and farm output

This year’s El Niño is on track to become the most powerful in over a century, with Pacific waters expected to heat up more than 3°C above normal — a level that would dwarf every El Niño event in the modern climate record and could push 2027 past 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded globally, Britain’s Met Office said on Friday.

A powerful El Niño is forecast to intensify Pacific Ocean warming, with scientists warning of implications for global temperatures, India’s monsoon and agriculture (AFP/ Representational image)

In India, where El Niño is already depressing the monsoon, the implications stretch across two crop seasons, with the current one already facing uncertainty with the rains having stalled.

“We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees -- that is unheard of in modern climate records,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, telling the BBC that even a 2°C rise is considered a “really big event.” The 2015-16 El Niño — the current record-holder — peaked at a roughly 3°C anomaly.

El Niño forecast points to an unprecedented Pacific warming event

The Climate Brink dashboard, which aggregates forecast models using data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shows the event on course to peak at a 3.9°C anomaly this November — well above the 2015 benchmark. Pacific sea-surface temperatures are currently running about 2.6°C above the rolling 30-year average.

“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” Scaife said in a Met Office blog, adding: “I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.” If the forecast is accurate, 2026 “will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences,” said the physicist, who specialises in climate modelling. He cautioned: “These are not short-term weather forecasts. We’re talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here.”

2027 could overtake 2024 as the hottest year on record

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern — a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that triggers cascading shifts in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall across the globe. Events typically occur every two to seven years, last nine to twelve months, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures the year after onset — which is why 2027, not 2026, is the year most likely to set the record. Nick Dunstone, another Met Office scientist, said 2027 is “very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.” In 2024, global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the limit set under international climate commitments.

Temperature shifts on a record basis due to El Nino (HT Photo)

India’s monsoon faces further pressure as El Niño strengthens

The Met Office said the event is already causing well below normal rainfall in India, and IMD projects the full season at 90% of the long-period average, its lowest in 11 years.

OP Sreejith, scientist and head of the climate monitoring and prediction group at IMD, said there is a high possibility 2027 beats 2024 as the warmest year on record globally. “For the Indian region, average temperature may not cross the 2024 record temperature. It will depend on the 2027 monsoon and ENSO conditions after the monsoon season then,” he said, adding India should still see strong heatwaves next year.

Impact could extend from this year’s Rabi crop into 2027

Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor at the University of Maryland and visiting professor at the Kotak School of Sustainability, IIT-Kanpur, said the impact on Indian agriculture could extend through both this year’s Rabi season and into 2027. “2023 and 2024 were fairly bad years too, due to El Nino. This year too, for India, the Rabi output may suffer and the government is already taking safeguards, like the action on edible oil and sugar. In 2027, for India, a lot will depend on how the monsoon performs, but spring next year may also bring a lot of heatwaves, which will again impact crops,” he said.

Murtugudde said he does not foresee significant action. “Words will be spoken, but globally, we are already seeing countries with their own problems. Europe is already suffering due to heatwaves, but with energy supply affected and the west Asia crisis, Europe is also falling short of its targets and commitments,” he said.

The Met Office forecast is in line with earlier assessments. The term El Niño — Spanish for “the boy” or “the Christ Child” — was coined by Peruvian and Ecuadoran fishermen in the 19th century for the arrival of an unusually warm ocean current off the coast that reduced their fish catch just before Christmas. It usually saps the monsoon in India.